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The ultimate guide to critical thinking + decision-making.

“Definition of intelligence is knowing what you want and bending the world to get it”
-Naval Ravikant

Hey there - it's Brian 👋

70% of our clients buy from us again.

Why so high?

I train my team to be their trusted advisor.

I learned in 6 years as a management consultant at Deloitte.

90-hour weeks of critical thinking and decision-making for big corporate executives.

(Geez that’s 27,000 hours)

🔥 Hot take:
It’s entirely learnable (& I’m about to teach you)

I had no idea what I was doing when I first started.

To the point where a partner pulled me aside and asked if I should reconsider my consulting career.

I hit my rock bottom.

I came to the office at 6am every day just to study critical thinking + decision-making.

2 hours every day. Full study days on weekends.

➟ How to make more accurate decisions
➟ Faster
➟ See the world with more clarity

And after 2 years…

I became a top advisor.

I don’t want you to go through what I did, but you need to be a strong decision-maker.

Decision-making is not just for business.

The outcome of your life is just a series of decisions.

➟ Build an incredible business?
➟ Rise to the top of your career?
➟ Run a household others are jealous of?
➟ Find (& maintain) an amazing relationship?

Better decisions = better life.

Everyone needs to learn to see the world with clarity.

Know what you want. And make decisions every day to get it.

Today’s issue boils 6 years of consulting into one email.

Bookmark this one. Study it. Come back to it.

Let’s make your business an outlier: 👇

Words of wisdom on decision-making

New to studying critical thinking + decision-making?

I’ll start by setting the tone with a few tweet-sized takeaways to get you in the right mindset:

If your choice seems obvious, you’ve shrunk the problem to fit your worldview.
Understand the actual problem.

If you can’t argue the other side better than they can, you don’t understand the problem.

If there’s smart people on both sides of an argument, then the other side is valid.
If you don’t see how it’s valid, you don’t understand the problem.

If you disagree, you either have different information or different values.
Find the difference.

The goal here is empathy. Real genuine empathy where you deeply understand all sides. Understand where others come from before judgement.

Side note:
I’m also going to use “critical thinking” logic, reason, decision making all interchangeably.

They’re different. But close enough for our purposes.

Let’s get into the meat of it: 👇

Why is thinking so hard?

Critical thinking is THE skillset that will make your business thrive or fail.

Or your personal life amazing or miserable.

Your happiness and success is completely dependent on the hundreds of decisions you make every day.

But people are horrible at it.

Why?

Two reasons:
1) Emotions are powerful, fast, and incredible tricksters
2) You don’t know what good thinking actually is (but you believe you do)

Here’s what I mean.

Problem 1) Emotions (fast, powerful, tricky)

Emotions react WAY faster than thinking.

You’ve made the decision emotionally before you’ve had a chance to think.

So people make decisions emotionally and then back them up logically.

Emotions crush your ability to understand the whole problem. Emotions override your ability to understand both sides and make the best decision for you and your business.

It may not feel this way but emotion + reason are opposites: the more emotional your decision the less logical it is.

But you need both.

To understand the full problem:
You need empathy + logic.
➟ Empathy to understand values of both sides.
➟ Logic to collect and organize all the information

To make the decision:
➟ Emotions help you make fast decisions.
➟ Logic help you make important decisions.

To communicate the decision:
➟ Emotions help it be received.
➟ Logic explains the decision.

If you’re all logic you miss half the picture and can’t persuade people.

If you’re all emotions your information is misled by bias + fallacies and make choices that can hurt your future.

Just learning a few ways to see the world with more clarity and make choices that make your dreams a reality can radically transform your life and business.

Problem 2) You believe you think well

Have you ever met someone who would admit:

➟ I’m not a good thinker?
➟ I can’t think for myself?
➟ My ideas are wrong?

People don’t study how to think.

You make decisions all day so you assume you’re good at it. But decisions are flawed.

They’re full of bias, bad assumptions, fallacies etc.

(We’ll get into this in a sec so you don’t fall into the same traps)

It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect:
The less you know about decision-making/critical thinking, the better you think you are at it.

Emotions are wildly important to good decision-making.

But since most people default to emotional decisions, we’ll focus this issue on critical thinking.

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:
Should you go with your gut?

This issue is on logic but there’s a time to decide using emotion.

Emotional decisions are FAST, but full of bias.

It’s great for fast decisions. Not for important ones.

How do you know which decision you can make quick?

Here’s a trick:

1) Is it reversible?
2) How valuable is it?

Important decisions are: 1) Irreversible + 2) High impact
Use logic.

Fast decisions are: 1) Reversible + 2) Low impact
Use emotion.

Here’s an example, most people confuse:

Choosing what to eat for dinner.

It feels stressful because it’s irreversible!

So you feel pressure to get it right.

But it’s low impact. So don’t stress.

Go with your gut. Make the decision fast.

Check out our own internal decision matrix:

⛓️‍💥 So how do you avoid the 7 most common mistakes when making rational decisions?

There’s 100s of little mistakes people make.

It’s overwhelming.

I’ve boiled it down to a list of the 7 most impactful.

So you can radically shift your thinking just after reading this email.

Stay to the end of this list:
I’ve also shared my favorite resources (books, pods, YouTube videos etc) to get you to be a next-level decision-maker.

I’ll start with some quick definitions to help us get aligned:

📖 Definitions:
➟ Mental shortcuts that are wrong are “biases”
➟ Mental shortcuts that help you solve problems are “mental models”
➟ Arguments that feel correct but are logically wrong are “fallacies”
➟ Predicting the long-term effects of your decisions is “judgement”

Btw. I’m starting you with some easy fixes. This list gets increasingly harder and we go.

We’ll use examples from business + life to show how to think critically in all situations.

So let’s get into it: 👇

Mistake 1) Assuming there’s ONE cause

Why didn’t that post work?
Why did the client react that way?
Why does my partner believe this thing?

People love to explain things in ONE reason.

That’s just wrong.

Life is complex. People have wildly different experiences. Values. etc

Focus on only one reason and you miss the reality.

Focus on 10 reasons and you’re too overwhelmed to make a decision.

So do this:
Wondering why something happened? Break things down to 3 - 5 reasons.

Consider how strong each reason is. And how they influence each other.

It’s called “systems thinking.”

Example:
Why didn’t that LinkedIn post work?

Traditional thinking:
It’s the hook!

Systems thinking:
➟ Hook
➟ Topic
➟ Angle
➟ Timing
➟ Distribution

Focus on just one reason and you miss 70% of the actual picture.

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:

People are used to traditional thinkers (“there’s one cause for the problem!”)

🚨 Warning:
When people listen to you they assume the first one you mention is THE reason (and you go down a rabbit hole).

People cling to ONE example they love then jump to conclusions.

Explain there’s multiple reasons upfront or your conversation gets derailed.

Mistake 2) Not weighing choices

Not all options weigh the same.

Some have a big impact vs med impact vs small impact vs no impact.

Whether you’re weighing the causes (top 3 reasons this could have happened?) or you’re weighing solutions (top 3 solutions that will move the needle the most?)

Each option weighs different!

But by default people assume cause or solutions weigh the same.

Don’t fall in that trap.

4 ways to weigh your choices:
1) Severity
2) Likelihood
3) Cost
4) Time

I always use business examples, but I’ll use a life example to show critical thinking outside business:

I just left Colombia for Argentina.

I was at a bar with a friend comparing safety in the two countries.

My friend said:
“But bad things happen in Argentina too!”

Obviously.

Iceland has been ranked the safest country for 14 years straight. But bad things happen in Iceland too.

The problem:
She thought we were comparing, do bad things happen, yes or no?

But that ignores weighting.

No country in the world that has zero crime.

So you need a different tool than yes/no.

The real conversation is:
➟ How likely is something bad to happen?
➟ How bad is that thing IF it happens? (Severity? Cost? Time?)

Do bad things happen, yes or no? Misses nuance.

Yes/no is too simple. Break the problem down to its parts.

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:

Here’s where I get pushback.

“But Brian, I have to think about FOUR things every time I think critically?

That’s not sustainable.”

Any new skill takes effort at first.

But after a few times it happens instantly. Then you wonder how people think without it.

If you don’t break problems down to its parts, you don’t understand the problem.

(And you’re not thinking critically)

You make bad decisions.

Success in life is just the outcomes of all your decisions.

So take 10 seconds to get the clarity others don’t have (& win at life).

Mistake 3) Assuming “different” is bad

“Different” is not bad. Different is different.

Bad is just how you judge the difference.

People see difference and assume bad. Which is wrong.

Every “bad” only make sense in context.

What’s “bad” for one person is “good” for another.

Every upside has it’s downside:
➟ Does your business value speed? You’ll need someone okay with making mistakes.
➟ Do you want to hangout with ambitious people? Expect fast-pace. Structure. Nerdy conversations.
➟ Need more creative people? Expect more risks (and failure).

So is anything actually bad?

(Other than actual crimes, of course)

Marking things as universally “bad” is the sign of a simple thinker.

So put things in context before you label things as good or bad.

Things are only “good” or “bad” relative to your goal.

A few examples:
➟ What’s the best social platform?
➟ Is that type of person an A-Player?
➟ Do I have a good business idea?

All of these question assume there is a “best” for everyone.

The answer: Each one is different. “Good” or “bad” depends on your goal.

Mistake 4) Using universal statements (Always. Everyone. Never)

I’ve got good news for you.

I have a few giveaway words you listen for that easily tell when people are making things up.

Ready?
➟ These people ALWAYS do this.
➟ Ads NEVER work
➟ EVERYONE hates this.

Any time you hear big universal words like these, it’s usually a sign the person hasn’t thought through what they’re saying.

And it’s wrong.

(There’s obviously sentences where it makes sense like “dogs always have 4 legs” but I’ve found meaningful conversations rarely have ideas this simple.)

Here’s an example:
Remember I said ambitious people are fast-paced, structured, and nerdy?

Always?

Well… no.

➟ Every ambitious person is different.
➟ AND they’re different in different scenarios (clients vs teams vs romantic relationships vs friendships vs family…)
➟ AND different depending on how they feel.

etc etc.

Decisions that actually matter are complex.

(This is why consultants get made fun of for answering “it depends”)

Don’t use universal statements.

You’ll miss part of the picture. And make misinformed decisions.

Break a problem down to its parts.

You’ll see which parts the argument makes sense for (and which it doesn’t).

And you’ll start saying “it depends” too.

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:

“Stereotypes” are a great example of universals.

I’ll make up a stereotype:
Entrepreneurs are ambitious.

If you have no other information when you meet an entrepreneur, that’s a fair assumption to start with.

But it’s false if you assume it’s “always” true.

Any information is better than nothing. So start with what information you have, but update your opinion as you get more info.

(That’s great lead into our next item…) 👇

Mistake 5) Holding your opinion too tightly

Society values people who know their beliefs (and don’t change their mind).

But why?

Because they confuse “correct” with “loyalty.”

“Loyalty” means you identify with a group (political, religious etc) and you don’t change.

Change your opinion and you’re not loyal to the group.

If all of your opinions fit cleanly into one group, you’re not thinking for yourself.

You’re missing information.

So here’s what you do:

➟ Start with an initial opinion (based on whatever info you have)
➟ Look for info that goes against your beliefs
➟ Update your opinion as you get new info

In other words, hold your opinions loosely.

Always assume you’re wrong. It’s just by how much?

Mistake 6) Not understanding the other side better than they do

If it’s obvious to you that your side is correct…

You’ve shrunk the problem to fit your world view.

(Another example of the Dunning-Kruger effect)

You need to argue the other side better than they can, or you’re missing information.

When you start to know more about it you start to develop empathy for the other side.

If you disagree with someone it’s either:
1) You have different information
2) You have different values

Make sure you have all the information. Then you start to realize that your opinions make sense under your values.

You can see how the other person got their opinion. And you build empathy for the other side.

🔥 Hot take:

One giveaway that someone doesn’t understand the whole problem:
Passion.

The more fired up someone is about their side, the less empathy they have for the other side.

Meaning they don’t understand it.

“Passion is the measure of the opinion-holder’s lack of rational conviction.”
- Bertrand Russell

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:

Ray Dalio is the perfect example.

He’s obsessed with having smart people around him who disagree with him (hear it from Ray here).

He doesn’t want to feel good. He just wants to be right.

Okay ready for the last one?

Mistake 7) Seeing things two options (not as as a range of options)

This one is way too common.

I’ll use life example for this one too.

I got this question last week:

Do you love this genre or music or hate this genre of music?

But that question feels oversimplified.

➟ Can I like one song in this genre and not like another?
➟ Can I like it in some situations but not others?
➟ Can I like it on my own but not with people?

Or this question:

Do you love going to this type of bar or hate this type of bar?

➟ Can it depend on the bar itself?
➟ What we do there?
➟ How often we go?
➟ Who we go with?
➟ My mood?

If you only see two options it’s called a “False Dichotomy.”

Usually you don’t only have two options.

You can compromise between options.

You just need to think through what the trade-offs are as you compromise.

🧔🏻‍♂️ Brian’s nerdy side rant:

Sometimes you create a false dichotomy to limit choices and focus your resources.

That’s fine. Just know you’re doing it and know what the trade-offs are.

You can’t unsee these mistakes

If you just focus on these 7 mistakes you start to see the world in a level of clarity you didn’t know was possible.

But now that you’re exposed, you can’t unsee this.

Can you imagine that most people only see two options… AND think there’s only one cause for the problem?!

You now have clarity and the ability to make decisions to get full control of your life + business.

Take in these tips and for those that want to deep dive more I’ve shared my favorite resources that helped me learn critical thinking in the “P.S.” section.

See you next week 👋

Brian
[email protected]
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TalentHQ

📎 P.S. Here’s my favorite critical thinking resources

1) Bulletproof problem solving
I learned on internal Deloitte decision frameworks, but I read this book and thought “woah this is exactly like what we did!”

Written by McKinsey guys.

Read this if you want to learn to problem solve.

2) Five ways to be MECE
I LOVE this YouTube video and recommend it to anyone.

It’s about 5 frameworks to solve business problems.

🔥 Hot take:
EVERYONE should learn business cases (even if you’re not consulting).

It’s the best way to learn to problem solve.

P.S. Prefer books? This is my favorite book on solving business cases.

Please read. It’s life changing.

3) Mental models
These are just quick problem solving tools to solve the world’s problems.

I hate most content on models + razors. It doesn’t help you understand how you can actually use it in your day-to-day.

But this video does.

P.S. My favorite models are inversion and Occam’s Razor. Both are in that video.

4) Cognitive Biases
Your brain is lazy.

So it tries to make shortcuts so you don’t have to put in effort.

You have no idea it’s happening (and it REALLY good at making you believe it’s true).

5) Logical Fallacies
These are just arguments we hear normal people say every day.

They FEEL right, but are actually wrong.

Learning about these fallacies opened my eyes to all the BAD explanations out there.

Here’s my favorite video showing fallacies.

🙋 Vote: How did we do?